What will our lives be like in five years??What changes will occur in economic siteseabet betting?The outline siteseabet betting road map siteseabet betting "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" is gradually becoming clear。The much-watched Fifth Plenary Session siteseabet betting 17th CPC Central Committee reviewed and approved the "Recommendations siteseabet betting CPC Central Committee on Formulating the Twelfth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development",Proposed to formulate the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan",We must take scientific siteseabet betting as the theme,Focus on accelerating the transformation of economic siteseabet betting mode。This will determine China’s economy in the next five years、The siteseabet betting path and panorama of society, democracy and people’s livelihood。
In addition,Reporter noticed,Among the main siteseabet betting goals proposed in this communique for the next five years,GDPQuantitative indicators such as this do not appear,Proposed that “the siteseabet betting of urban and rural residents generally increased rapidly”。Some experts said,You can see the siteseabet betting plan for the next five years,The transformation from “national strength” to “people’s prosperity”.
FadeGDPThe "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" may no longer "guarantee the eighth",Pay more attention to structural adjustment
Although the details siteseabet betting "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" will not be announced until next year's "Two Sessions" are passed,But from the framework siteseabet betting disclosed “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”,We can see the transformation path of China’s economic and social siteseabet betting in the next five years。
Proposed with the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan”2010Annual GDP per capita ratio2000Doubled every year”、“Energy consumption per unit of GDP is lower than at the end siteseabet betting “Tenth Five-Year Plan” period20%Compared with other quantitative indicators such as "left and right",No specific quantitative development indicators are proposed in the framework content siteseabet betting "Twelfth Five-Year Plan"。
Yesterday,Nanfang Daily reporter interviewed many heavyweight experts in Beijing。They generally believe,During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period,The government will downplay itGDPGrowth target,And pay more attention to adjusting the structure. They predict,Future10China’s average annual growth rate only needs to reach approximately5.6%level,It will be done2000Year to Year2020Per capita during the yearGDPThe long-term siteseabet betting goal of quadrupling.
Researcher at the Decision-making Consulting Department siteseabet betting National Academy of Administration、Former National Development and Reform Commission macroeconomist Wang Xiaoguang told reporters:“It’s a good thing that the goal of keeping eight is lowered,China’s current situation is that it should not grow too fast,If it is too fast, it will not be conducive to structural adjustment. ”
An expert from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences told reporters,Although GDP(GDP)Total breakthrough30One trillion yuan,Foreign exchange reserves reached2.45Trillion US dollars and overfulfilling the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan"7.5%’s siteseabet betting growth target,But,China is implementing the unitGDPReduced energy consumption20%is obviously struggling to achieve its goal.
“GDPThe total amount can explain certain problems,But measuring the strength of a country or the strength of a nation,Can’t just watchGDP,It also depends on the quality siteseabet betting person、Innovative ability、Industrial、Agriculture、Military and international competitiveness, etc.。" said Tang Min, deputy secretary-general siteseabet betting China Development Research Foundation。
At the Copenhagen Conference,China promises to arrive2020year unitGDPCarbon emission intensity ratio2005year decrease40%—45%,Hard constraint goals of low-carbon green economy,Forcing China to slow down the pace of siteseabet betting growth。Suggestions from scholars,China during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” periodGDPThe growth target should be set at7%—8%About.
Proposed in the communiqué,The next five years will be a critical period to accelerate the transformation siteseabet betting economic development model。Transformation from "growth" mode to "development" mode,Not just a literal change,Zheng Xinli, Executive Vice Chairman siteseabet betting China Center for International Economic Exchanges, pointed out in an interview,“The original transformation of economic growth mode mainly refers to the adjustment siteseabet betting structure of production factors,Realize the transformation of economic growth from extensive to intensive。The change in economic siteseabet betting mode will at least extend to the demand structure、Supply structure and production factor structure3Aspects. ”
Ma Jun, chief economist of Deutsche Bank Greater China, believes,Due to exit slowdown、Changes in six factors including slowdown in real estate demand and slowdown in urbanization,ChinaGDPAverage annual growth potential is likely to increase from approx. over the past decade10%Reduced to the next ten years7%,Entering a normal and reasonable growth range,He suggested,Officially used in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan"7%'s growth goals.
A strong country requires a prosperous people. The National People's Congress survey recommends the introduction of a reform plan for the siteseabet betting distribution system as soon as possible
Proposed by the just-concluded Fifth Plenary Session siteseabet betting 17th CPC Central Committee,Make "the income of urban and rural residents generally increase rapidly" one siteseabet betting main goals of economic and social development in the next five years。Pay equal attention to ensuring stable economic growth and protecting people's livelihood,Increase the proportion of residents’ siteseabet betting in national siteseabet betting distribution.
Reform and Opening Up30over the years,China’s economic and social siteseabet betting has achieved world-renowned achievements,But while government revenue continues to increase,A series of problems have become increasingly prominent:The siteseabet betting of some monopoly industries is too high；The siteseabet betting gap between urban and rural residents is too large...these problems remind people,Achieving a higher level of “people’s wealth” goal,There is still a long way to go.
Therefore,The Plenary Session will place the goal of “people’s prosperity” in a more prominent position。This pursuit includes at least two aspects:First, we must further improve the overall level of people’s siteseabet betting,Continue to make the “cake” bigger; second, we must narrow the gap between rich and poor,Cut the cake more reasonably,Promote social equity. And the latter is better than the former,More realistic and urgent.
Some analysts pointed out,The unreasonable distribution pattern of national income has become an impact on the growth of my country’s residents’ consumption、Important reasons for stable economic development。Optimizing the income distribution pattern during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period is an important link in promoting the reform siteseabet betting economic system and the transformation of development methods。Open up new ways to change the unreasonable status quo of distribution pattern,has become one siteseabet betting key contents siteseabet betting "Twelfth Five-Year Plan".
Proposed in the communiqué,“Reasonable adjustment of siteseabet betting distribution relationship,Strive to increase the proportion of residents’ siteseabet betting in national siteseabet betting distribution、The proportion of labor compensation in the initial distribution”,At the same time, we must "improve the social security system for urban and rural residents,Accelerate the siteseabet betting of medical industry”,Do a good job in social and medical security。The Standing Committee siteseabet betting National People's Congress also recommended in the report on special research activities for the preparation siteseabet betting "Twelfth Five-Year Plan",Formulate and introduce a reform plan for the siteseabet betting distribution system as soon as possible,Gradually increase the proportion of residents’ siteseabet betting in national siteseabet betting distribution and the proportion of labor remuneration in primary distribution,Gradually form a distribution pattern in which middle-siteseabet betting earners account for the majority.
"Further promote reform,Change the way of economic siteseabet betting starting from people’s livelihood,Couldn’t be more correct。" said Wang Yuanjing, deputy director siteseabet betting Strategy Office siteseabet betting Investment Research Institute siteseabet betting National Development and Reform Commission,The Fifth Plenary Session siteseabet betting Central Committee siteseabet betting Communist Party of China emphasized that it is of great significance to ensure and improve people's livelihood at this stage of development。
Special emphasis in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” research report siteseabet betting Institute of Macroeconomics, National Development and Reform Commission,The importance of adjusting national siteseabet betting distribution during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period,It will be to expand consumption、One siteseabet betting prerequisites for goals such as reforming the dual structure。
The National People’s Congress Standing Committee’s research report is submitted,Strive to form a social security system that coordinates urban and rural areas by the end siteseabet betting "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period,It is also recommended to continue to increase the proportion of social security expenditures、Use the main part siteseabet betting state-owned capital operating budget to supplement the source of social security funds、Using the basic pension insurance for urban enterprise employees as a breakthrough to promote the partial national coordination of basic pensions, etc.。
On how to reform the siteseabet betting distribution system,Many experts also made suggestions. Zhou Tianyong thinks,To reform the siteseabet betting distribution system, we must first reform the state-owned monopoly and state-owned financial systems,Profits must be distributed reasonably,Incorporate these profits into budget management。The second step is to establish a wage coordination mechanism,Control the relationship between oil price growth, wage growth, etc.,And have a reasonable minimum wage limit,At the same time, the government also needs to provide more public services in education and health。In terms of social security,We also need to increase the proportion of social security expenditures,Expand coverage,Improving the level of social security coordination,And reform the tax system,Moderately levy property tax, inheritance tax, etc.,Reduce taxes on entrepreneurship and employment.
Consumption first and adhere to the strategy of expanding domestic demand,To expand consumer demand, we need to increase consumption capacity
Proposed in the communiqué issued by the plenary session,“Adhere to the strategy of expanding domestic demand、Maintain stable and rapid economic siteseabet betting”,"Accelerate the formation of consumption、Investment、Export coordination drives new situation of siteseabet betting growth”。
On how to stimulate domestic demand,What are the new requirements in the new era,Zhou Tianyong, deputy director siteseabet betting Research Office siteseabet betting Party School siteseabet betting Central Committee siteseabet betting Communist Party of China, said in an interview,Our country must expand domestic consumer demand、Expand investment demand and export demand,We must coordinate the relationship between the three,Among them, efforts should be made to expand domestic consumer demand.
Wei Fengchun, chief macro analyst of CITIC Construction Investment, pointed out,The communique mentioned that “we must adhere to the strategy of expanding domestic demand”,This does not refer to investment needs,It is consumer demand. he thinks,To expand consumer demand, we must increase consumption capacity。From the perspective of expanding workers’ siteseabet betting,Mainly to increase the basic salary,Increase subsidies for low-siteseabet betting people; from the perspective of consumer goods,It is to lower the prices of consumer goods,Increase consumption,The prices of basic consumer goods will not change much,So the main thing in this regard is to lower real estate prices,Expand its consumption.
Some experts think,Since there are still many uncertainties in the global siteseabet betting situation in the future,We do not rule out the possibility of another deterioration in the external demand market,So we need to rely on stimulating domestic demand,Continue to maintain the steady and rapid siteseabet betting of China's economy.
Wang Tao, chief economist of UBS Securities, told reporters:“stimulating domestic demand,Establish a long-term mechanism to encourage consumption,The problem of residents’ siteseabet betting gap must be solved. ”
Ping Xinqiao, School of Economics, Peking University said,“China has always emphasized expanding domestic demand,The most urgent thing should be to make up for the shortcomings of social security,In addition to increasing financial investment,The system should also be improved,This is the real expansion of domestic demand。”He also suggested that China should clarify its ideas for establishing a welfare society in the next few decades。
(Source: Nanfang Daily, Beijing reporter Lu Tianling, trainee reporter Sun Yunjia, special topic coordinator Chen Hanhui)